MAGR vs. CAGR, rolling five-year Bitcoin growth rates

The OMEGA60 Bitcoin Price Model was first developed in 2022 as part of the structural work behind El Salvador’s Bitcoin Bond program. Its original purpose was pragmatic: to forecast the future value of Bitcoin expected to be accumulated by a nation-state against the bond principal it would owe, allowing a comparison between potential Bitcoin gains and outstanding fiat obligations.

We are now publishing OMEGA60 as a standalone model because it addresses a fundamental gap in Bitcoin valuation models. Existing frameworks such as Stock-to-Flow, Power Law, and Metcalfe-based network approaches all assume that Bitcoin and fiat currencies will coexist indefinitely. Most also express their projections as an average within a predefined range, converging toward diminishing returns over time.

OMEGA60 Uses MAGR

OMEGA60 forecasts Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory using an annual growth rate derived from Bitcoin’s historical Median Annual Growth Rate (MAGR). The model uses MAGR rather than the more popular Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) because MAGR is less sensitive to Bitcoin’s extreme cycle peaks and troughs and therefore provides a more stable measure of typical annual growth.

CAGR represents the constant annualized rate that would take Bitcoin from a starting price to its ending price over a multi-year window. Because Bitcoin’s historical performance is highly cyclical, CAGR is unusually sensitive to the chosen endpoints: periods containing broadly similar annual growth can produce radically different CAGRs depending on whether the measurement begins or ends near a cycle peak or trough.

CAGR vs. MAGR show why OMEGA60 uses median growth to reduce cycle-based distortion.

The chart above illustrates this endpoint sensitivity, with CAGR varying considerably across measurement windows while MAGR remains comparatively stable.

Using MAGR as its growth measure, OMEGA60 anchors its long-term price trajectory to an annual growth rate of 60%.

Why 60%?

Looking at Bitcoin’s post-2014 price history, the median of its annual returns from 2014 through 2022 is approximately 59.7%.

Bitcoin Annual Returns 2014-2022

YEAR	OPEN	CLOSE	RETURN
2014	$805.90	$318.20	-60.52%
2015	$318.20	$430.00	35.14%
2016	$430.00	$963.40	124.05%
2017	$963.40	$13,850.40	1,337.66%
2018	$13,850.40	$3,709.40	-73.22%
2019	$3,709.40	$7,196.40	94.00%
2020	$7,196.40	$28,949.40	302.28%
2021	$28,949.40	$46,219.50	59.66%
2022	$46,219.50	$16,537.40	-64.22%

2014-2022MAGR ~59.7%CAGR ~39.9% 2018-2022MAGR ~59.7%CAGR ~3.6%

Both windows return the same median annual growth; their compound annual growth rates do not

Despite enormous variation between individual years, the median annual return over this period was 59.7%. This is the historical basis for the model’s 60% growth assumption.

The stability of the median becomes especially clear when comparing different measurement periods:

2014–2022: MAGR ≈ 59.7%, CAGR ≈ 39.9%
2018–2022: MAGR ≈ 59.7%, CAGR ≈ 3.6%

Despite producing the same median annual growth rate, the two periods generate dramatically different CAGRs because their endpoints fall at different stages of Bitcoin's market cycle. The 2022 cutoff reflects the model's origin in the Bitcoin Bond work, not a favourable endpoint: extending the window through 2025, which adds +155.6% (2023), +121.3% (2024) and -6.1% (2025), raises the median annual return to roughly 77%. The 60% figure is therefore conservative against both the original window and the full record. OMEGA60 therefore rounds the historical MAGR of 59.7% to 60% and uses it as the annual growth rate underlying the model's long-term price trajectory.

Bitcoin’s price does not track this trajectory smoothly. In the current bear market, Bitcoin trades at roughly $64,000, compared with an OMEGA60 target of approximately $118,000. While this places Bitcoin about 46% below the model, such deviations are not unusual: Bitcoin ended 2016 about 26% below the model and 2022 about 24% below, while trading well above it in other periods, reaching 565% above the model in 2017 and 240% above in 2020. This reflects OMEGA60’s role as a long-term trajectory rather than a short-term price target.

The Terminus Zone

OMEGA60 Price Projection Chart with the current projected Terminus

If Bitcoin’s maturation represents a transition from speculation to global monetization, then there comes a point where fiat-denominated price models stop telling the full story. OMEGA60 identifies this phase as the Terminus Zone. Unlike other models, OMEGA60 does not project Bitcoin’s dollar price upward forever. Beyond a sufficiently high price, continued increases would increasingly reflect the weakening of the dollar itself, making an endpoint necessary.

The Terminus Zone begins once Bitcoin's price crosses the Terminus Line. We define the Terminus Line as the Bitcoin price at which Bitcoin’s market capitalization reaches half of gold’s total market capitalization. Based on gold's estimated market capitalization of approximately $31.5 trillion as of August 2026, half of gold's market cap is about $15.7 trillion, implying a Terminus Line of roughly $785,000 per bitcoin at Bitcoin's current supply of ~20.07 million coins. As the Terminus Line is tied to gold’s total market capitalization, it is not a fixed dollar price; it rises or falls as gold’s price and estimated above-ground supply change. At the current Terminus Line, OMEGA60 projects Bitcoin to enter the Terminus Zone in August 2030. To see the current Terminus Line, visit jan3.com/charts/omega60.

Gold is used as the reference point for the Terminus Line because it is one of the oldest surviving non-sovereign stores of value and the clearest existing benchmark for monetary asset status. Unlike silver and other precious metals, gold has historically been valued primarily for its monetary properties: its scarcity, durability, fungibility, and exceptionally high stock-to-flow ratio make it difficult to expand the supply in response to rising demand. Reaching half of gold’s market cap would therefore mean Bitcoin is no longer merely a high-growth asset inside the fiat system, but has become large enough to compete directly with the world’s established monetary store of value.

Beyond the Terminus Line, fiat-denominated valuation begins to break down because the unit of account becomes part of the problem being measured. Bitcoin’s price may continue rising not only because adoption increases, but because fiat currencies are rapidly losing purchasing power against scarce monetary assets.

Historical Precedent

History shows how hard assets behave when fiat currencies deteriorate. In Weimar Germany, gold did not become harder money; the mark collapsed against it. Gold’s nominal price exploded because the measuring unit itself was failing.

Gold priced in Weimar marks, 1914-1923, with the month-over-month rate of change.

The lesson is that fiat-denominated prices become less meaningful when the currency itself is losing credibility. In that environment, Bitcoin’s rising price may reflect both increasing monetary demand and a weakening unit of account.

OMEGA60 extends this logic globally. Beyond the Terminus Line, continued appreciation may increasingly reflect fiat decline as much as Bitcoin monetization, making the dollar price a less complete measure of Bitcoin’s economic significance.

Comparison with Other Models

OMEGA60 sits within a broader landscape of Bitcoin valuation frameworks.

Stock-to-Flow (S2F): grounded in scarcity but ignores demand shocks; correlation failed post-2021.
Power Law Models: fit historical data with diminishing returns but assume stable fiat baselines.
Metcalfe’s Law: captures individual network effects yet omits sovereign and institutional demand.
BITCOIN24 (Saylor): explicitly tapers growth from 50% toward 20%, assuming long-term coexistence with fiat.

The Convergence

While valuation frameworks vary, each suggests a timeline for Bitcoin reaching a $1,000,000 unit price. Comparing these projections highlights the different underlying assumptions of each model:

Stock-to-Flow: May 2028
OMEGA60: February 2031
Bitcoin24: 2032
Power Law: June 2033

All four models independently place Bitcoin’s $1 million milestone between 2028 and 2033, a relatively narrow five-year window that could mark a decisive phase in Bitcoin’s transition toward global monetary status.

Beyond $1M

Beyond the $1 million milestone, any long-term Bitcoin valuation model faces a fundamental problem: without some form of upper boundary, continued compounding eventually produces absurd fiat-denominated prices. This is not unique to Bitcoin. In a sufficiently depreciating currency, almost any scarce asset can eventually be quoted in the billions or trillions, as occurred with prices denominated in Zimbabwe dollars. At that point, the rising nominal price says less about the asset itself and more about the deterioration of the unit being used to measure it.

The other models remain useful, but none defines an endpoint for this problem. OMEGA60 therefore does not attempt to extend a fixed fiat-price trajectory indefinitely. Instead, the Terminus Zone provides a natural boundary beyond which conventional fiat-denominated valuation begins to lose explanatory value. Other models can continue compounding mathematically without limit, but doing so eventually produces numbers that cease to represent a meaningful measure of Bitcoin’s purchasing power or economic significance.

The Terminus Line also provides a useful reference point for parties considering Bitcoin accumulation, highlighting that the window to acquire meaningful exposure at current levels may be limited. This is particularly relevant for nation-states, where delayed action can make future accumulation materially more difficult and expensive.

Ultimate Scarcity, Unlimited Demand

Bitcoin’s monetization phase is unlike traditional asset adoption. Several structural drivers reinforce sustained growth.

Absolute Scarcity: with a fixed supply of 21 million, demand shocks translate directly into price.
Adoption Acceleration: Bitcoin has reached hundreds of millions of users, and did so faster than the rise of the internet or mobile phones.
Macroeconomic Tailwinds: global debt reached a record $353 trillion at the end of March 2026 according to the Institute of International Finance, and combined with persistent inflation pressures, drives capital toward scarce assets.

Before 2014, Bitcoin was a largely retail-driven, illiquid, and speculative market with limited adoption and little institutional infrastructure. Since then, exchange-traded products, institutional custody, sovereign participation, and deeper liquidity have transformed the market into one capable of absorbing much larger pools of capital.

Bitcoin’s fixed supply ensures that rising demand cannot be met through increased issuance. As corporations, institutions, nation-states, and Bitcoin Treasury companies like Strategy aggressively accumulate this scarce asset, monetization has transformed into a high-stakes competition for a finite supply.

This process is unfolding against a macroeconomic backdrop of rising global debt and persistent pressure on fiat currencies. As Lawrence Lepard argues in The Big Print, heavily indebted governments are increasingly incentivized toward monetary expansion and financial repression. In that environment, Bitcoin’s maturation may not imply diminishing returns in the traditional sense; greater liquidity and institutional access can instead accelerate its transition from a speculative asset to a global monetary asset.

Conclusion

OMEGA60 quantifies Bitcoin’s trajectory toward monetary dominance. By anchoring on a historically consistent yet conservative 60% Median Annual Growth Rate, it challenges models that assume perpetual diminishing returns and recognizes that Bitcoin’s ascent cannot be separated from fiat’s structural decline.

For institutions and nation-states, the question is not whether Bitcoin reaches $1 million per coin, but whether they will be positioned before the world stops measuring value in dollars altogether.

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